two stories in today’s housing market. which one is real?

The rennie podcast is about the real estate market and the people connected by it. Tune in for monthly discussions making sense of the latest market data.

EPISODE #86: TWO STORIES IN TODAY'S HOUSING MARKET. WHICH ONE IS REAL?

There’s a lot being said about the housing market right now, and not all of it lines up. One story points to a slow market, with hesitant buyers and downward pressure on prices. The other points to early signs of change, with sales beginning to pick up and supply tightening.

Ryan Berlin and Ryan Wyse are joined by Brandan Price to bring together what the data is showing and what’s playing out in the market. They look at where conditions stand today, what may be shifting beneath the surface, and what it means for how people buy, sell, and make decisions this spring.

Featured guests:
Ryan Berlin, Head Economist and Vice President of Intelligence
Ryan Wyse, Lead Analyst and Market Intelligence Manager
Brandan Price, rennie advisor

We’d love to answer your real estate questions. Email us at [email protected] or leave a voicemail, and we’ll try to respond in future episodes. 

⁠Transcript

I see two narratives.  Total doom and gloom. Markets collapsed. Buyers don't wanna buy. Sellers can't sell.

The market's not more of the same. Sales are starting to pick up.

You know, that's a big positive for buyers, especially those that are just entering the market or upsizing.

We haven't had a market like this in 20 years that's been sort of this slow from a sales perspective for this long.

People seeing their property values go down 5 to 10% on their assessed value.

It's an end user market right now, so selling a vacant condo versus a tenanted condo to an end user, the vacant condo's much easier for them to take possession of.

Bitcoin, Labubu's, stock, real estate. People, you know, they sorta like to join that herd.

Ryan Berlin: Welcome to the rennie Podcast. I'm Ryan Berlin, Vice President of Intelligence and our Chief Economist here at rennie.

Ryan Wyse: I'm Ryan Wyse, Market Intelligence Manager and Lead Analyst here at rennie.

Ryan Berlin: And today we have a, a high profile and well-dressed guest.

Ryan Wyse: [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: A returning guest, a longtime rennie advisor, one of our highest performing advisors, a rennie leader for how many years?

Brandan Price: I don't know. Probably since they started rennie leaders, maybe.

Ryan Berlin: 20 years.

Brandan Price: [laughs]

Ryan Wyse: [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: Medallion Club for how many years?

Brandan Price: I've been here 16.

Ryan Berlin: Well, then it's been-

Brandan Price: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: It's been 16.

Brandan Price: [laughs] Yeah. Medallion for around 10 or 12, I think. Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Presidents?

Brandan Price: Couple, till they changed the rules-

Ryan Berlin: Mm

Brandan Price: ... with the teams.

Ryan Berlin: Right. [laughs]

Brandan Price: [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: You're also an art collector.

Brandan Price: Yes.

Ryan Berlin: What else do you do? Do you adopt rescue dogs?

Brandan Price: Lots of golf.

Ryan Berlin: Lots of golf.

Brandan Price: Yes. Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Oh, course. Are you lefty or righty?

Brandan Price: Righty.

Ryan Wyse: Good.

Ryan Berlin: Okay.

Ryan Wyse: [laughs]

Brandan Price: No go- no golf until at least April, though.

Ryan Berlin: And, yeah, it's coming.

Brandan Price: Snowing. It's snowing today.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. It's snowing today, but golf season's around the corner. It'll be Masters soon. Yeah.

Brandan Price: Totally.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. Some, some people will recognize your voice, but I still haven't said your name. So it's Brandon Price.

Brandan Price: Brandon Price.

 Ryan Berlin: Welcome. Welcome back.

Brandan Price: Thank you. Appreciate it.

Ryan Berlin: Welcome back.

Brandan Price: Thank you, guys.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. Second or third time?

Brandan Price: Uh, I think it's second.

Ryan Wyse: Okay. Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. But it's been a while.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Brandan Price: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Time flies, you know? What's new? How's, how's business for you? Obviously up and down market, maybe down for the last few years, but how are you doing?

Brandan Price: Can't believe it's March already. The sort of start of the year has flown by, but I'm seeing, you know, people dust off the cobwebs a bit for the spring market, and sellers are getting organized to list, and, you know, buyers are, are getting organized with their pre-approvals and, you know, acknowledging there's value out there to do deals. So everyone's sorta getting organized in their respective fronts, and-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Brandan Price: ... be interesting to see how the next couple of months plays out.

Ryan Berlin: Do you think that, that the expectations of, as we move into the spring now, sort of concluding year four of this downturn, are sellers and buyers now materially recalibrating their perceptions and expectations about the market, do you think?

Brandan Price: Oh, yeah, for sure. I mean, it's, you know, in the heyday 2015 se- to '17, and even, you know, parts of COVID where it was really busy, you couldn't tell a seller the market wasn't very good. You know, even, you know, at the start of COVID, there was a lot of uncertainty. Then things really picked up during COVID. You know, it's, uh, now what I've found, which is great for buyers, is that sellers do not acknowledge that it's a good market, and it's been like that for a while.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

 Brandan Price: So you're not submitting a bid, and they're like, "Oh, it's picked up, and it's busy-"

Ryan Berlin: Mm

Brandan Price: ... "and, you know, we'll just wait for the next guy." Those conversations that, you know, I'm approaching 20 years in the business, hasn't happened very many times where the seller fully acknowledges that it's not their time. You know?

Ryan Berlin: Right.

Brandan Price: They know it's the buyer's time to shine. Uh, that's a big thing. You know?

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Brandan Price: It's, you know, it's helping buyers get price reductions. It's subject removal. It's, you know, it's just the seller knows that they need to be priced sharply, and that you could have 20 groups through an open house and get no offers. So it's, uh, you know, that's a big positive for buyers, especially those that are just entering the market or upsizing and-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah

Brandan Price: ... with their growing families and things like-

Ryan Wyse: You know, I think that's good for, uh, sellers understanding the reality of the market. Like, we haven't had a market like this in 20 years that's been sort of this slow from a sales perspective for this long. Prices have come down quite a bit over the last couple years. So for, for sellers to understand that this isn't, you know, a, a brief slowdown in 2008, this is something different, and to adjust their expe- expectations accordingly I think is really important.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. If you've ever owned any asset, right, and someone asks you, "What's it worth?" Like, you default to the highest value that you can recall. Like, it just, it sticks with you, right? Like, you're not that willing... Especially when it's a home, where it is, probably has the most value of any single thing in your portfolio, right? Like, you are-

Brandan Price: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: You know, we're all reluctant to sort of acknowledge that, oh, maybe it's, it's worth $100,000, $300,000, $500,000-

Brandan Price: Yeah  

Ryan Berlin: ... less than it once actually was. Even if you weren't ready to sell then. I mean, it was-

Brandan Price: Yeah

Ryan Berlin: ... neither here nor there, in a sense, but we get attached to those big numbers, right?

Ryan Wyse: There's a pride of homeownership, too.

Brandan Price: Yeah.

Ryan Wyse: It's like people should-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah

Ryan Wyse: ... should-

Ryan Berlin: For sure

Ryan Wyse: ... value this as much as I do. I'm, you know, this is my home.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. This is a great home.

Brandan Price: And a big part of that just, you know, closing the loop on sort of where sellers are at mindset-wise and, and knowing it's not a good time to sell, you know, the BC assessment values help hammer that point home this year. I mean, obviously I haven't looked at everyone's assessed value. It's tough to do that, but the ones that I've come across, when you're looking at what they were in 2025, and then seeing what they are, you know, have been now at the start of 2026, and then further reductions from there for these buyers and list prices lower, you know, it's not a, you know-blanket statement for every property. Some are still trading for above assessed, but, you know, the majority are trading for below assessed. And people seeing their property values go down 5 to 10% on their assessed value-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Brandan Price: ... helps sorta create that mindset that I was mentioning to you of the sellers definitely knowing that it's not their market.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, absolutely. We'll talk more about the resale market in a moment. There's some mixed signals, I, I would say mixed signals-

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm

Ryan Berlin: ... coming out of the data in February. We also wanna touch on some of the broader macroeconomic conditions as they've evolved to start the year, and that can't really exclude the, uh, war in Iran that's transpiring right now. We also wanna talk about, um, a few other things that we don't normally talk about, but it's, it's your area of expertise where you spend a lot of time, um, in the multi- multiplex space, land assemblies, talking about presale versus resale pricing, 'cause that dynamic has changed-

Ryan Wyse: For sure

Ryan Berlin: ... over the last little bit.

Ryan Wyse: Absolutely.

Ryan Berlin: So we'll get into all of that. But Mr. Wise, I said there are some mixed signals coming out-

Ryan Wyse: Yeah

Ryan Berlin: ... of the MLS data. I, I see two narratives, right? Like, typically, it's, it's based on the first couple of months of this year. You see some commentary that is, like, total doom and gloom, market's collapsed, buyers don't wanna buy, sellers can't sell, and values are dropping, and there's no, there's no hope. It, this isn't turning around. And then on the other hand, I've seen some [laughs] commentary where it's like you get some people really digging for those positive signs, right? Maybe digging-

Ryan Wyse: Yeah

Ryan Berlin: ... a little bit too much. But I do think, like, on the surface, it's been a slow start to the year. February was definitely better than January, right? So the market, there's some seasonality there. But why don't you talk about how things have evolved to start 2026?

Ryan Wyse: Okay, let's do it. So we, I mean, we do this every month, and every month it's like, "How's the market?" And for so many recent months, I kinda say, like, "Ah, it's more of the same." Sales are slow, new listings are up, inventory's high. And the sales are still relatively slow. You mentioned people getting ready for spring. We saw the seasonal pickup we would expect in February. So sales were still below average, just over 2,400 for the Vancouver region. That's the Vancouver board area plus the Fraser Valley board area. So that is 38% below average, so still pretty slow, but much, much higher than January. We didn't really get a spring market last year, so we'll see if we actually get one. Last year was all tariff threats and Liberation Day, and people just kind of stood completely on the sidelines last spring. But sales were still 8% lower than last February, so that's still pretty slow market cycle.

Brandan Price: Volume-wise?

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Counts.

Ryan Wyse: So number of counts.

Ryan Berlin: Counts.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Ryan Wyse: So still a pretty slow month overall. What's interesting, though, is we had record new listings come to market last year. We hit 90,000. I don't know why I'm asking you. We hit [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: [laughs]

Ryan Wyse: Um, yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Wyse: So we haven't started the year off on the same trend. So we started off with the most active listings since 2013, and new listings have started to come off relative to last year, still higher than average. So, um, new listings are actually down 10% month over month. So typically, as we start the year, new listings expands-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah

Ryan Wyse: ... inventory expands. And so a January to February decline in new listings is actually quite rare. Instead, we're now, we're now seeing inventory kinda trend closer to last month instead, or last year, pardon me, instead of expanding. And so the market's not more of the same. Sales are starting to pick up more so than new listings are. And we started the year this, like, real buyer's market, and now we're kind of trending the months of inventories actually come down a little bit, and we could actually be trending back more towards balanced conditions if these trends continue. We're, like, a week and a half into March, and sales are just below last year for, for March sales week and a half in. And new listings are, like, 38% below the first week and a half of last year.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, that's significant.

Ryan Wyse: So I... The trend now is not record new listings of so many people either coming to market or doing a price reduction, relisting, calling it a new listing.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Wyse: That little trick that, uh-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah

Ryan Wyse:... some people do. And I think overall we'll see inventory expand more slowly than you might otherwise expect. It typically expands-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah

Ryan Wyse: ... through the spring. So a, a lot of words to say the market has changed a little bit, but sales counts are still pretty slow.
Ryan Berlin: And maybe, you know, maybe that's partly due to everyone's calling their realtors and thinking, like, spring's their time.

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Brandan Price: The realtor's doing an evaluation and like, "Oh, really? That's where my number is? You know, it's lower than I thought. Okay, let's wait."

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Brandan Price: "Or let's see what happens, you know, March, April. Maybe reconvene in May." You know, I'm having some of those discussions with sellers, people that don't really need to sell. That's just one, you know, thought that comes to mind for me with people getting the real numbers from whoever their advisor is and pausing.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Brandan Price: But, you know, the lack of supply is music to my ears. I think it does help things get into a more balanced position, and, you know, less for buyers to choose from can create sorta trickles of some partial urgency.

Ryan Berlin: So I don't need specific numbers here, but what- proportion of the market do you think on the sell side is, uh, homeowners who need to sell, like there's some urgency, versus not? Because the sense has been that even though we've seen prices come off, like, we still haven't gotten back to the spring 2022 peaks. It's been further-

Ryan Wyse: We're further away than we ever have been [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: And we're further away.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: They're trending in the wrong, uh, direction. Given how much inventory is out there and how much sales have come off, it is surprising to me that prices haven't come off more, right? And I sort of-

Ryan Wyse: Mm

Ryan Berlin: ... we talk about this and attribute it to the fact that the economy, while not performing great, has, has held up. You know, definitely from a, from a, a wealth perspective, you look at stock markets, other commodities markets, they've done very well. So this isn't a market that's characterized by economic doom and gloom where people, they don't have any money to pay the mortgage anymore, they, and they have to sell. But what's your read on that? Like, to what extent do you have sellers out there who are like, "Yeah, if I get my price, great, and if not, I'll hang"?

 Brandan Price: Yeah, I mean, at this moment in time, a lot of my inventory, uh, you know, on a percentage basis is estate sales. You know, someone unfortunately has passed away, and maybe there's three beneficiaries, and, you know, every, you know, it's been maybe a year or so since. You know, the deceased had passed away and, you know, everyone's looking to move on. Let's use an example of a property that's two and a half million bucks, and, you know, there's three beneficiaries. Okay, well, yeah, they were hoping for 2.4 to, you know, have an... But if they get 2.3 or 2.2, everyone's still getting-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah  

Brandan Price: ... you know-

Ryan Berlin: Right

Brandan Price: ... that main bulk chunk of change, so to speak. So, you know, it's, uh, that's, that's currently where I'm at with things is, you know, a lot of people that are going to market this spring, at least in my own listing bracket-

Ryan Berlin: Mm

Brandan Price: ... is a lot of estate sales or, you know, restructuring with family and, and things like that. I've got a few other listings coming that fall under that bracket over the next couple of months. You know, you know, investors are, if they have a vacancy in their condos, are entertaining the idea 'cause they know that rents have softened when they're re-leasing it up. So they're looking at their numbers, hearing what I'm telling them their property's worth and then, you know, regrouping on their own or as a family to see what they wanna do with, you know, sort of the non-estate sale, just traditional investor condo, uh, resale product.

Ryan Wyse: Certainly, I mean, it's an end user market right now, so selling a vacant condo versus a tenanted condo to an end user, the vacant condo is much easier for them to take possession of.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. Absolutely.

Brandan Price: Yes. I've repped very few investors over even the last four years. You know, the numbers don't-

Ryan Berlin: Oh, yeah

Brandan Price: ... make sense.

Ryan Berlin: No.

Brandan Price: Even if you're buying a condo that's $600,000, to have it where you're flush with your expenses, you sorta have to be in and around 50% with today's rates and strata fees-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah

Brandan Price: ... insurance, property taxes. You tally it all up, you sorta need 50% down with today's rents.

Ryan Berlin: Right.

Brandan Price: Where that used to be-

Ryan Berlin: And there's a huge opp-

Brandan Price: ... 35-

Ryan Berlin: Right

Brandan Price: ... 30 range.

Ryan Berlin: There's big opportunity costs there, too, right? Of that capital being tied up there to make the return look decent.

Brandan Price: Have it be, yeah. [laughs] Totally.

Ryan Wyse: I mean, a lot of those investors were totally fine with that when prices were rising because they could-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah

Ryan Wyse: ... you know, count on that capital appreciation.

Brandan Price: And they knew they could rent it out quickly, and there was less competition in the rental market, and things like that.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. I mean, this is a theme, a theme of, of our market today, which is that capital, it flows, right? It's not constrained by, you know, country, provincial, or municipal borders. It's not confined to an asset class. So, you know, people are... You know, everybody's chasing returns, right? And, um-

Brandan Price: Absolutely

Ryan Berlin: ... and, and over the past few years, it- it-- we haven't seen that in, in housing. The west side, did you wanna share any numbers?

Ryan Wyse: Yeah, for sure. So you, you know, you obviously work quite a bit on the west side.

Brandan Price: Yes.

Ryan Wyse: There's some interesting things, I think, that's happening in the west side that's not happening through the broader market. On the sales front, they're actually outperforming right now, which often we think of the west side as, like, a lagging market where, you know-

Brandan Price: Mm

Ryan Wyse: ... more affordable product picks up first, and the west side kinda picks up later. It's not really happening right now. So sales were just, like, 1.6% below last February, but actually, like, 1% above average. So sales last month on the west side, a little bit above that past decade average, which I thought was interesting. Um, condos still way down relative to average. Detached home and town home above average, and then skyrocketing, 'cause it's new product, is that sort of duplex, multiplex space. So that bucket of, of home types is 171% above average for sales last month because everything's so new.

Brandan Price: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Wyse: Like 10 years ago, you know, there wasn't a lot of duplex or multiplexes selling. And then on the inventory side, a little bit tighter, and the new listings kinda following that same broader market trend. So I think it's the family home, the end user product that's really sorta still getting picked up on the west side. So I'm curious, you know, like, what kinda stuff-

Brandan Price: I can attest to that.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. [laughs] Okay.

Brandan Price: Yeah.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Brandan Price: So it's, you know, I think a lot of people, you know, let's say some of my clients that have been looking for a family home, whether they're renting or they sold and they are now renting, sort of been hunting for their, their family home. People are now realizing the time is, is now or, you know, it's a better time than previous years to look at acquiring. And some of those people started their search around, you know, Great East Side neighborhoods, Fraser, Main, maybe Commercial Drive.

Ryan Wyse: Mm.

Brandan Price: And now they're looking at the pricing, chatting with their spouse and family and saying, "We should s- probably start looking at the west side. We'd i- we'd love to be there. It's great. The schools are great." They maybe grew up there at some of the local public or private schools.

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Brandan Price: And they're looking at how tight the gap is and, you know, it, it makes sense to maybe if they do wanna stretch a little or, you know, look at different product in the west side. It's, it's appealing to a lot of people. If they're renting and/or in their current property looking to purchase and the goal for their family is to be in Kits, Kerrisdale, wherever they wanna be in the west side, instead of going to something in East Van that they can afford and then going to that step-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Brandan Price: ... they'll save a lot of transaction costs with just maybe, you know, biting the bullet, coming up with an extra 100,000, maybe selling some stock, maybe a small little injection from the bank of Mom and Dad. That's another thing. You're not seeing as much, or at least I'm not seeing as much, of injections from the bank of Mom and Dad because of their assessed values, because their values are down.

Ryan Berlin: Because of their own.

Brandan Price: Yes.

Ryan Berlin: Right.

Brandan Price: Because of the parents' values are down. They're not running-

Ryan Berlin: Well-

Brandan Price: ... around saying, "Oh my gosh." Like, place went from, you know, in the great times to 2 to 2.7. Now their place is closer to 2.2 today than it was at 2.7, so that 500-

Ryan Wyse: And rates are higher.

Ryan Berlin: And rates are higher, yeah. So it's more costly.

Ryan Wyse: So you can't get out of your...

Brandan Price: Absolutely.

Ryan Berlin: And on the flip-

Brandan Price: So-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah

Brandan Price: ... so I'm seeing these young families or middle age families, whatever, whatever that may be, you know, making their own adjustments to make it work. Because I'm not seeing the, you know, bank of mom and dad come to property tours and look around and sort of verbalize to me and their children that they're willing to give them a couple hundred thousand dollars. Obviously, there's people that are giving those funds still, but it's dramatically lower, the amount that they're giving and, you know, less families doing so.

Ryan Wyse: Is the greater prevalence of duplexes part of it here too? Like, you know, to get that sort of traditional family home a little bit more affordable than, than the detached home, and you still get the yard and everything else.

Brandan Price: But I would say, you know, not a blanket statement, just from some of my own experiences, let's call it younger families with no children, recently engaged, about to get married or someone with one, with maybe two children. A lot of them, even when you look at these west side land value, call it 33 footers entry point segment to the market, that sort of, you know, sub 2.5, they'd rather spend maybe t- call it 200,000 less and get a move-in ready duplex.

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Brandan Price: You know, it's, I will say-

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm

Brandan Price: ... a lot of the call it sub 50 demographic or younger families that are busy running their kids around to various activities, sports, parents are working, they've got mortgages to pay, they are trending towards these newer duplexes, acknowledging the value in those units from where they've... You know, some of those prices have come down 15, 20%.

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Brandan Price: Front units were selling for 2.6 all day long, now they're going for in and around 2.2, 2.3. The back units in, you know, I remember examples in Kitsilano were going for 2.7 for these 15, 1,600 square foot units. Now those are going for 2.2, 2.3.

Ryan Wyse: Mm.

Brandan Price: In and around the pricing as the front. But I will say that these sort of younger families, uh, growing families are trending towards duplex 'cause they don't wanna get their sleeves dirty, roll their sleeves up and, you know, get into these older houses that are essentially land value.

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Brandan Price: They'd rather just-

Ryan Wyse: Yeah

Brandan Price: ... walk in, figure out the GST negotiations with the developer seller, you know, and find some value in these duplexes and not have to do much and, and still have a warranty with very low strata fees on these duplexes.

Ryan Berlin: So let's, let's just pivot into that.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Um, we'll, we'll come back to the, the newer, um, macroeconomic data that we wanna touch on just 'cause we're, we're now, we're-

Ryan Wyse: Into it [laughs].

Ryan Berlin: We are full on in, in-

Brandan Price: Yeah

Ryan Berlin: ... multiplex mode here.

Brandan Price: Yes.

Ryan Berlin: So just as background, the BC government in 2023 introduced legislation that sort of supported the growth in this space, the small scale, multi-unit housing legislation, Bill 44. It essentially did away with single family zoning throughout the province in, in s-

Ryan Wyse: Exclusionary.

Ryan Berlin: S- yes, exclusionary.

Brandan Price: Yeah.

Ryan Wyse: You can still build a single family home.

Ryan Berlin: You can.

Ryan Wyse: It's just not excluded-

Ryan Berlin: Yes

Ryan Wyse: ... to only a single family home.

Brandan Price: And you get, if you build single family, you're getting penalized slightly on your density.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: You are. Yeah. And I mean, yeah, now they're encouraging that lots be developed with three, four, six units, um-

Brandan Price: Yeah

Ryan Berlin: ... or more-

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm

Ryan Berlin: ... uh, depending on the tenure, if it's ownership, rental. So we would expect on paper, I mean, the idea there is that we're activating sources of supply that otherwise wouldn't be available. Like, the, the view has been, I think the city of Vancouver, like 65% of the land base or, is, um, is RS1 or single family zoned.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. That's like all land. That includes roads, hospitals-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah

Ryan Wyse: ... parks, everything.

Brandan Price: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. So it's a significant chunk, right? So the idea is let's, let's unlock that and, and allow for the housing market to evolve in line with the needs of people.

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Berlin: Their, and, and what they can afford. And so, you know, since it was introduced on paper, I've supported it. I never s- now I didn't personally see it as a silver bullet.

Brandan Price: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Right? But we are from a transaction perspective and a construction perspective, we are seeing big growth. I mean, Ry-

Ryan Wyse: Yeah

Ryan Berlin: ... you just pointed out on the west side that, um, that, that multiplex segment saw sales increase, you know, almost triple over the past year, over the past year.

Ryan Wyse: Decade average, past decade.

Ryan Berlin: Over the past, versus the past decade average, but a big increase. So why don't you talk a bit more, Ry, about-

Ryan Wyse: Yeah

Ryan Berlin: ... what we're seeing more broadly in that segment.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. So it's still, uh, disproportionately within the city of Vancouver. So about half the starts, you look at CMHC housing starts, about half of the, they call it semi-detached. I call it an Ontario term. Um-

Brandan Price: That's it. They call it semis in Toronto.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah, yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Brandan Price: Some of my clients that are coming have told me that they call them semis-

Ryan Wyse: And they don't-

Brandan Price: ... and not duplex

Ryan Wyse: ... they don't consider it a duplex unless it's stacked on top of each other. Anyway, it's a, a point of contention with me.

Brandan Price: [laughs]

Ryan Wyse: [laughs] So about half of the semi-detached starts across Metro Vancouver are in the city of Vancouver, were in the city of Vancouver last year. It's a growing share, but a small share of the overall amount of construction activity. There was about 1,500 starts across the region, so over 700 of those in the city. Um, that is, like 6% of all housing starts were plexes last year across the region. So still pretty small, but it's growing and that's the on- I think the only sector that actually saw growth. Condo starts have come down. And so there's more than 500 applications ongoing in the city of Vancouver. Half roughly have a development permit. And many of those are applying for building permits now, so pretty close to starting construction. So, you know, it's, it's big in the city, it's growing in the region.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Wyse: But it's still a relatively small share. And back to your point, Ryan, about is this a silver bullet? I mean, if you take a, a lot with one house or maybe one house with a basement suite and you build four homes, you're getting, you know, plus two for every one of these. So it's not-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Ryan Wyse: ... it's not like a tower or a big town home development where you're gonna be adding hundreds of homes. We're talking about incremental increases, but spread out across an entire city or across an entire region.

Ryan Berlin: A- and to, to that point, it's a form of housing that, um, you're simply not creating when you, you build towers.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Right?

Brandan Price: Absolutely.

Ryan Wyse: And, and that, that people like, young families like, uh, it's-

Brandan Price: A young family would way rather be in a duplex or multiplex versus, you know-Have a kit or two up in the, you know, 20th floor of-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah

Brandan Price: ... any building sorta anywhere.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Brandan Price: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Absolutely. Yeah, I mean, it's intuitive, right?

Brandan Price: In an ideal world.

Ryan Berlin: In an ideal world. So some questions for you about the space. I'm curious because I know when, um, the legislation was initially introduced, it was... My perception was that the concept was, was often framed around this idea that, like, as a, as a homeowner, um, you can, you, you can realize additional value in your property, still have a place to live. So, like, you know, downsize the home that you live in, but stay on the lot-

Brandan Price: Yes

Ryan Berlin: ... and then build around you, and, you know, realize that value there, but you don't have to move, and-

Ryan Wyse: Except during construction.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, no one likes that.

Ryan Wyse: [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: But, um-

Brandan Price: Yeah. Yeah

Ryan Berlin: ... but as an end state.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. Yes

Ryan Berlin: ... you know, it's, it's like, okay, yeah, you can see how there would be potentially, you know, additional value accruing to homeowners. But, like, how much of the capital that is driving this comes from, like, the m- the mom and pops versus, you know, versus being professional capital, small developers, family offices, that kinda thing?

Brandan Price: I feel that initially when the, everything, uh, changed where you could do multiplex, 'cause obviously you've been able to do duplex for a little while now-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Brandan Price: ... it's just sort of talking about the multiplex. I had quite a few clients reach out or, you know, sorta the younger generation reach out on behalf of their parents, and candidly, I told them to not do it because, you know, it's... When you're... It, it's different if you're a developer building duplex, building sorta smaller scale developments-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Brandan Price: ... and you've got economies of scale with your trades and those types of things.

Ryan Berlin: So, like rolling them, the project-

Brandan Price: But even if, even if all three of us here, you know, took one of our houses and did that, when you look at sort of today's current revenue sales figures on these types of units, y- all three of us would lose our shirt. You know, it just... 'Cause we've gotta pay retail numbers for architect, builder.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Brandan Price: You know, none of us... I, I, you know, it'd be great if one of us were a builder and had reduced costs, and obviously we could all call in a few favors. But when you look at what w- our all-in hard and soft costs-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Brandan Price: ... numbers would be to build these things, they're a lot higher than what someone that's building 15, 20, 30, call it, doors a year.

Ryan Berlin: Right.

Brandan Price: That's a big thing. To me, it comes down to what's your construction costs.

Ryan Berlin: Right.

Brandan Price: 'Cause when you factor it all in, you know, some of these people, the mom pop type that might have entertained it, they might end up b- be in a better spot to sell their house, rent, and wait to pick up something that's built-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah

Brandan Price: ... and, you know-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah

Brandan Price: ... get one of those units in one of those developments.

Ryan Berlin: Right.

Brandan Price: I just think that most people, the mom pop type folks, not because of lack of experience, 'cause they could get advice from myself or their advisor, but I think it's just hard to make the numbers work on a retail level for people that are only doing that project in the course of a year.

Ryan Berlin: And then w- what, what do you think? You said-

 Brandan Price: Oh

Ryan Berlin: ... construction costs are sort of for you the biggest nut that needs to be cracked there, which-

Brandan Price: Yes

Ryan Berlin: ... makes sense. But what about land costs? Because o- one of the con- I don't know if I'd call it a concern, but reservations maybe I had about the efficacy of the policy, uh, as it relates to, like, expanding supply, has been around, like, where do those opportunities exist for this, this type of redevelopment to actually take place? And I thought of my own situation, right? Where I'm raising a young family.

Brandan Price: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Berlin: And, you know, the amount of money that somebody would have to offer me to acquire my property to redevelop it would be prohibitively high because I'm not, I'm not interested in taking a, you know, 20% more than market for the sake of it, and then, uh, being spit back out and needing to find a home to raise my family in again, right?

Brandan Price: Yes.

Ryan Berlin: So it's like I would think, but you tell me, like, do we see... Like, h- how much are land costs prohibitive in seeing more development in this space? And, and do you see, you know, where we do see these multiplex coming up, is it... Are they specific circumstances, like older couples or families that are looking to downsize, get out, or maybe they're estate sales? Or what, like, what do those look like?

Brandan Price: Yeah. So the ones where you're seeing multiplex built out, I think you're seeing them on sites that might be a B, B+, not an A-type site-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Brandan Price: ... in most cases. There are sort of developers, household names, I, just for confidentiality I won't mention their names, but household developers that have been doing projects all over have taken a bit of a position in these multiplex.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Brandan Price: I've seen them even take a step back on land acquisitions. The reason why I mentioned construction costs and didn't really touch on the land is because, you know, from a 10-year land price horizon, let's look at the west side, prices are quite reasonable.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Brandan Price: So to me it's like, okay, yeah-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Brandan Price: ... would it be great to get your land for 100 grand cheaper or 150 grand cheaper on a 50-foot lot? Yeah, absolutely. But you're gonna be able to make up tho- that-

Ryan Berlin: Right

Brandan Price: ... little gap by, you know, let's say b- a group that's got economies of scale that are, again, the groups that are building 15, 20, 30 doors or little projects here and there, they're gonna spend less on construction than we all would. They're gonna be, call it, in and around, their all-in cost might be 350, 400 bucks a foot. We go out there and do the same thing, and we might be at 600.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Brandan Price: So when you look at the 600, it better be quite a bit nicer than the guy that's building it at, you know, 200 bucks cheaper than you.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Brandan Price: Because-

Ryan Wyse: Who does it professionally. [laughs]

Brandan Price: Yes. Who does, like-

Ryan Berlin: Who knows what they're doing

Brandan Price: ... it, doing it day in, day out-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, yeah

Brandan Price: ... with a gauntlet of50 trades that are, you know-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah

Brandan Price: ... doing stuff quickly. They're building it quicker than we would-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah

Brandan Price: ... which saves on lending costs.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Brandan Price: So I don't-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah

Brandan Price: ... think it's really, you know, the land pricing. I think it's really comes down, that's why I-

 Ryan Berlin: Yeah

Brandan Price: ... sort of leaned in on the construction costs, and the other soft costs.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Brandan Price: Some of these developers m- may not hire a designer, where we all three here would, 'cause we're not doing that, but they're doing more scale. They might be on their third, uh, duplex or multiplex project and, you know, they've got a designer that's doing it sort of on a lower price basis. And again, the economies of scale for these groups. So, you know, 200 bucks a square foot-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah

Brandan Price: ... when you look at, you know, the one FSR density on these multiplexes.

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Brandan Price: You know, what is that? Call it on a standard, or call it on a 50-foot lot, that's 6,000 feet, 200 bucks a foot. What is that? That's... Is that 1.2, or... No, it's 120k different. I gotta work the numbers.

Ryan Berlin: [laughs]

Brandan Price: My calculator-

Ryan Berlin: Get to this

Brandan Price: ... is not out here today on the podcast

Ryan Berlin: 6,000. That's .3 extra.

Ryan Wyse: We use computers for this.

Ryan Berlin: Yes, exactly.

Brandan Price: [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: Yes.

Brandan Price: But the point is, is, you know, it's, it's a lot more-

Ryan Wyse: AI, yeah

Brandan Price: ... for the retail folks-

Ryan Wyse: Okay

Brandan Price: ... to do it.

Ryan Wyse: So are they generally then not knocking on doors and trying to select high-profile sites when, like we, you mentioned earlier that the older homes that need a lot of work are kind of not really attractive to the young families. Like, there's probably a lot of listings of older detached homes that are, like, just available. Prices have softened. You can negotiate a decent deal. Like, they probably don't need to knock on doors right now.

Brandan Price: No. You can seek what's on the active, you know-

Ryan Wyse: Yeah

Brandan Price: ... MLS and sort of pick from those. You're not... But when there's a restricted supply-

Ryan Wyse: Mm

Brandan Price: ... situation, guys are knocking on doors to do these multiplex. And, you know, I'm sure we'll get there again, but it might be a little bit.

Ryan Berlin: It's about another 350,000 bucks.

Brandan Price: Okay. There we go.

Ryan Berlin: [laughs]

Brandan Price: Thanks for crunching that, Ryan.

Ryan Berlin: Okay. On a 6,000 square foot lot.

Brandan Price: So you look at that. If the, if, if the lot comes down 100... You know?

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Brandan Price: And that's just, like, general rough numbers. And so it just gives you a feel for, you know, what people are, what the developer crowd is spending versus mom-and-pop-slash-people that wanna give it a go on their own to end up-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah

Brandan Price: ... living back on their single family lot.

Ryan Wyse: Have, have you heard of-

Brandan Price: I think they're better off just buying existing new product than becoming a developer. 'Cause when... The other thing you look at, you know, 600 bucks a foot on a 6,000 foot lot, you're looking at 3.6 million of construction costs.

Ryan Berlin: Yep. Yeah. Yep

Brandan Price: Plus your land cost at, call it 3 million bucks, plus or minus. That's a $6.6 million project. Should those mom-and-pop folks, that pretty much have all the money in their house, you know, they might have some stock accounts-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah

Brandan Price: ... and have some other money. I'm just talking general broad strokes. You know, the bank of mom and dad type crowd, a lot of their equity is in their house.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Brandan Price: A lot of their net worth is in their house. Do they wanna turn around and be a developer and do all that and have the stress? And, you know, they might have some general development experience, but they're not ready to, to-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah

Brandan Price: ... you know, really maybe take that on.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Brandan Price: To then come out of it and maybe lose 500 grand when they're done the whole project.

Ryan Berlin: Right.

Brandan Price: So-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah

Brandan Price: ... anyway.

Ryan Berlin: Great insights.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: I mean, it's a space that we don't spend a lot of time in. It's an emerging segment of the market, right? So this is actually very educational for me.

Ryan Wyse: What about doing a deal with a developer as the seller? So you negotiate in that you're gonna buy back one of the units. You're not actually gonna develop it themselves. Developer essentially pre-sells one of the homes up front when they acquire the land. There's, maybe there's a deal to be had there.

Brandan Price: There's some benefit.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Brandan Price: Yeah, you'd have to figure out and structure how that seller would vend in their land.

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Brandan Price: You know, there's ways-

Ryan Wyse: Mm

Brandan Price: ... to figure that out.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Brandan Price: But again, as the seller that needs to start off this whole party with the developer and figure out where you're going with it, when they actually look at the numbers or they get an analyst or a realtor to crunch those numbers, they might be better off staying in their house. Or again-

Ryan Wyse: Mm

Brandan Price: ... buying the multiplex that was just built-

Ryan Wyse: Mm

Brandan Price: ... two months ago down the street. The only caveat is for someone that, to do multiplex is if they have a large family, they've got a family property, the parents wanna downsize, the kids might be having-

Ryan Wyse: Sure

Brandan Price: ... a little bit of a tough time entering the market-

Ryan Wyse: Mm

Brandan Price: ... and they all throw in sort of their equity together.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Brandan Price: Maybe they do build at 600, or maybe they're all in for 500 a foot, I'm talking hard and soft costs here, to then all land and, and sorta, you know, cohabitate, so to speak, and have some built-in childcare and all live there together. That might make sense. But to go to market and sell from being a mom-and-pop owner, I think you really-

Ryan Berlin: Right

Brandan Price: ... wanna nail down your numbers and get clear on what the end revenue is.

Ryan Berlin: That would be daunting for the vast majority of homeowners. Let's pivot back quickly.

Ryan Wyse: Sure.

Ryan Berlin: You had a few comments on the latest, uh... This is a hard pivot.

Ryan Wyse: [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: This is just, like, no smooth segue out of this.

Ryan Wyse: [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: Back to, um, the latest inflation and jobs data and what it means for this market potentially.

Ryan Wyse: It, it's, we've been saying for a couple months now kind of that inflation is something we don't have to worry about. So we've been inside the Bank of Canada's target range for more than two years now. The Bank of Canada's lowered their policy interest rate to 2.25%, and they've said they're gonna hold there. And one of the things we've been saying is, you know, inflation's not our concern. Our concern is whole bunch of other stuff, a lot of which we've talked about today. So now we've got a new war in the Middle East. Oil price basically doubled in a couple weeks. They've come back a little bit. If this is sustained and the oil shock remains, that will be inflationary, and that's something the bank will- Bank of Canada will have to deal with, probably not in their next interest rate announcement. But this is something, a new concern-

Ryan Berlin: Which is in March.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah [laughs]. This month.  

Ryan Berlin: This month.

Brandan Price: Yeah.

Ryan Wyse: So this is a new concern that we just didn't have before two weeks ago.

Ryan Berlin: I think it's a real concern. I mean, I think, I think s- some of us are looking at the, um, this, this latest oil price shock as something that'll, it'll go away. There's some evidence that, thatIt might play out that way. Oil prices, like WTI Crude, was 65 bucks a barrel prior to February 28th when the war began. It touched 115 a few days ago. It's now receded to $85. So if you look at where the pre-war value was, where we are today, obviously this number, the current number's in flux. It's up 30%, right?

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Berlin: So there's, like, any gas station you drive by, you see that the price of gas has gone up materially.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Like, we're now approaching $2 a liter here, right? So there's that direct, mostly direct pass-through of higher oil prices into gasoline, just the cost of operating our vehicles. But then you step back and you realize, like, how pervasive that is because our, our economy is predicated on moving people and things around, right?

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Berlin: So all-

Brandan Price: Absolutely

Ryan Berlin: ... of the things that we buy everywhere, to the extent that o- higher oil, oil prices prevail, are going to have baked into them higher input costs.

Ryan Wyse: Especially-

Ryan Berlin: Right?

Ryan Wyse: ... food.

Ryan Berlin: So, uh, yeah.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Especially food, um, but literally any, any-

Ryan Wyse: Yeah

Ryan Berlin: ... any physical object, right? It gets moved around on something with wheels-

Ryan Wyse: [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: ... typically, right?

Ryan Wyse: For sure.

Ryan Berlin: Um, and so there is a, there is a risk here. The, the question is, like, how long does this war go on for? None of us here are gonna be able to predict that, so we don't, we don't need to speak to it. But it is interesting and, and [laughs] unfortunate that inflation now, we can't just dismiss it and say-

Ryan Wyse: Mm

Ryan Berlin: ... "Hey, we, this is, this is not a thing." It's something-

Brandan Price: Like, it sort of went away for a bit, and now it's, you know.

Ryan Berlin: I mean, underlying inflation... So if you look at, you know, broadly speaking, outside of, I think, uh, food inflation has, uh, we've seen some acceleration there. But generally speaking, core inflation, headline inflation has been, as you said, Ryan, under, under control for a couple of years. There's no real threat to broad-based price increases outside of what we're seeing in oil. And so to the extent that the, the conflict is resolved and comes to an end in the Middle East in the near term, yeah, we should expect... And oil is, is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. Right now it is not. The number of tankers that are moving through that part of the world has dropped from, I think it was 60 per day down to three to four. I don't know who those, those folks are-

Brandan Price: Three or four

Ryan Berlin: ... that are, yeah, who [laughs] they're risking life and limb to get through there.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: Right? But you would expect traffic to normalize to a degree, right? And so, you know, maybe we just end up back to where we were in February in the near term. But now that variable, that variable's in play.

Brandan Price: Mm. I'd like to talk about immigration at some point.

Ryan Berlin: You wanna talk about immigration? Okay.

Brandan Price: I mean, I don't have any-

Ryan Berlin: Lead the charge.

Brandan Price: I don't have any... [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: [laughs]

Brandan Price: You know, what I'm seeing is, you know, and you guys are obviously looking at the numbers way closer than I am, but, you know, you look at, we're sitting here, we're looking at Sen̓áḵw. I believe rennie's doing the lease up there. And, you know, just other rental supply, the unsold, uh, finished, uh, new product-

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm

Brandan Price: ... you know, developer space. I'm personally on the streets hearing, you know, people sort of leaving the province. Uh, you know, not in droves, but, you know, people are going to Calgary. Maybe if they're from Toronto, they might be going back. Not hearing of a whole lot of an influx of people coming. I, you know, I've, again, not tracking student visas and, you know, total folks coming in from international cities, but wondering if you have any sort of broad general comments about that. 'Cause it's, you know, when you look at standing built-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Brandan Price: ... rental inventory that needs leasing up, and you look at the unsold developer product, that's obviously been a hot topic-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Brandan Price: ... here at our office-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Brandan Price: ... just given what we're involved in. Would like to know what you guys are seeing, what you're sort of hearing out of Ottawa, if anything, uh, in the province. 'Cause, you know, to me it's, you know, where, where are all these doors gonna get filled up from if immigration has essentially stalled, uh, from, from what I'm hearing out there?

Ryan Berlin: So it's something that we've talked about on the, on the podcast before, and, and we sort of touch on as, as new data, uh, emerges, um-

Ryan Wyse: We'll get the Q4 update any day now. It's coming from, from Stats Can.

Ryan Berlin: Okay.

Ryan Wyse: And it will show likely population loss in BC almost certainly.

Ryan Berlin: For the calendar year 2025.

Ryan Wyse: For the calendar year 2025, and probably nationally.

Ryan Berlin: What's important, so you're not... You know, your assessment there, your take is consistent with what we're seeing. In our view, the demographic, the change in the, in the trend in population growth, which has gone from, you know, positive forever to negative, is, is most certainly transitory driven by the f- by federal immigration policy, specifically as it relates to non-permanent residents. Because we're still welcoming, you know, close to 400... The target is f- close to 400,000-

Ryan Wyse: Yeah

Ryan Berlin: ... permanent residents.

Ryan Wyse: And so when you look at it provincially, we'll have a net inflow of immigrants and a larger net outflow of non-permanent residents that kind of overwhelms that number. So we're still bringing in immigrants. We're essentially asking a whole bunch of temporary workers and students to leave.

Ryan Berlin: And, but this is-

Brandan Price: Oh, I see.

Ryan Berlin: There's-

Brandan Price: Yeah. Okay.

Ryan Berlin: You know, there's an end date for this, right? Which is the end of 2027. And so to the extent that immigration targets are achieved by then, we fully expect, like the math just dictates, that we get back to historical growth levels, adding-

Brandan Price: Mm-hmm

Ryan Berlin: ... in this, in Metro Vancouver, between 30,000 and 40,000 people on a net basis per year.

Brandan Price: Do you see that being a- ba- added back in again?

Ryan Berlin: The, the only way it doesn't... I mean, there, there's a bunch of ways it could evolve. But realistically, the only way we don't get back there is if the policy is extended, amplified, a new policy restricting incoming people to Canada is introduced. So, you know, if you look at the existing set of policies and the perspective that the federal government has on immigration and the value that immigrants bring to our culture, our economy. Yeah. I mean, starting in 2018, we should be back on... Th-this is very much a temporary blip.

Brandan Price: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: So you're right. [clears throat] You know, right now-

Brandan Price: So say 2028, you mean?

Ryan Berlin: 2028-

Brandan Price: Yeah, yeah, yeah

Ryan Berlin: ... is the year when we should return to historical growth rates. And so, you know, what it means is-

Brandan Price: That's positive.

Ryan Wyse: And that's right when completions should really slow down, so.

Ryan Berlin: That's true. And, and in-

Brandan Price: So it could be... Yeah.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: You're right that there's a glut of rental housing right now. There's a lot of completed and unsold developer-held inventory. That will take some time to work through. It's why, you know, when we advise our developer clients, when we, when we speak broadly to the, to the rental market, it's a, yeah, it's gonna be softer. We've had two years of declining rents in, in new product, right? And we think that that's gonna continue this year. I mean, it's just, it's bringing together s- more s- sluggish demand and a lot of new supply, and that needs to resolve itself. It doesn't happen overnight, right? So-

Brandan Price: Absolutely

Ryan Berlin: ... it's also not that far off in the future. So we think this cycle ends, bottoms out, uh, next year, and then we start to return to normalcy. You know, assuming the rest of the world hasn't gone crazy.

Ryan Wyse: Who knows? And then on the interprovincial side, it was a negative interprovincial migration for about 18 months, so that's more people moving, mostly to Alberta, than coming from Alberta, Ontario, and other provinces. It flipped back to positive, really small positive numbers, I think Q2 of last year. We're probably trending towards small positive net interprovincial migration last year once we get the data. So, like a few thousand people, a few thousand more people will have had come in than have-

Ryan Berlin: [laughs]

Ryan Wyse: ... than did leave. [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: [laughs]

Ryan Wyse: Um, yeah. That's a lot of words. Um, [clears throat] so it, not a major source of population growth, but no longer a source of population loss.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Ryan Wyse: And I think part, like, part of it, so many people left for affordability reasons, and now all of a sudden we've got this soft rental market. If you're 22 and working, and rent is coming down, then it's no longer like, "Oh, I should probably move to Calgary." Like, "Hey, I can find a decent place now," whether it's in the newer rental space that has a ton of vacancy or in the older rental space that's starting to free up a little bit as people move within the market.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah. Satisfied? [laughs]

Brandan Price: Yeah, no, I appreciate it.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Brandan Price: No, it's, you know, I think it's a big, you know, it's, it has been a key market driver.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm. Sure has.

Brandan Price: And, you know, one of the fundamentals of the market. And I was, just wanted to get some clarity on that, and hopefully the people that are listening, uh, appreciate that intel as well.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, but I mean, like, to, to this point as well, it, it does, you know, there is a window here and opportunity again if you're, if you're in this market or if you were already planning to come here. You know, whether you are renting or buying.

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm.

Ryan Berlin: You know?

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: You've, you've got conditions that still tilt favorably, you know, in, in your direction, right? So, yeah.

Brandan Price: For the new market entrant, whatever that may be.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Brandan Price: You know, it's one of the first times I've seen this ever on a sign. I was driving, uh, in the West End. You know, it's, uh, again, I won't mention the site, but it's a prominent rental site, multi-tower site, sort of older product. There was a big lit up sign, like a nice sign, and they probably had, you know, "No vacancy" on showing there previously. And it, you know, referenced incentives.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah.

Brandan Price: And I mean, i- you know, it's, uh, I should drive back today and see if that's still there on my, when I'm heading downtown for my next meeting. But you don't see that. So as the tenant, as the tenant that's complaining about, you know, lack of inventory, you know, the tenant's gotta be, you know, grinning a little bit as well here.

Ryan Berlin: Oh, yeah.

Ryan Wyse: Absolutely.

Ryan Berlin: There isn't, there isn't a project that's a rental project that's launched in the last year that, or is leasing up now that isn't offering incentives.

Ryan Wyse: For so long [laughs] in this market, we didn't have nice new rental for people to live in with amenities-

Ryan Berlin: Yeah

Ryan Wyse: ... all the bells and whistles. If you wanna rent a nice apartment right now, you have so much choice. They want you to come. They're offering incentives. Like, it's a great time to be in this space-

Ryan Berlin: It is

Ryan Wyse: ... as a tenant.

Ryan Berlin: Let's wrap up here, uh, with our listener question. It's Marcus from Pemberton.

Listener question:  Hi, Ryans. It seems like a lot of home buyers are still holding off. What do you think they're waiting for before making a move to buy?

Ryan Berlin: Well, he directed it at, at-

Brandan Price: Yeah

Ryan Berlin: ... one of the Ryans.

Ryan Wyse: [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: But I think this is a question for you, Brandon.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah.

Brandan Price: You know, buyers, and I've said this to a number of people, it's over the last, call it, year, 18 months, plus or minus more specifically, buyers have been rewarded to wait. Let's say they started their search 18 months ago. You look where things were at, you know, six months into that, then another six, and then another six. Now you're at today. The pricing slid down. You know, they started watching it when prices came down. In Vancouver, you know, historically prices aren't coming down that much.

Ryan Wyse: And rates came down at the same time.

Brandan Price: And rates came down as well. So people, I think, waited for the rates. They saw prices come off. They were incentivized to wait, and, you know, no one's got a crystal ball. But as a buyer, when you've got a seller that acknowledges that it's not a good market, rates have come down, you've got your down payment, you're in a strong position to negotiate, especially if you're currently renting, have sold, or, you know, don't need to sell to acquire.

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm.

Brandan Price: You're in a good spot, probably the best spot over the last 10 years. Buyers should be the one guy at, you know, that dinner party that's putting their hand up saying, you know, "I just, I just bought recently." And, you know, Bob has mentioned it before. I've been here a lot, so that's why I reference that dinner table discussion. Socializing and being the fact that in a hot market, every one of those eight people are sitting at the dinner table, you know, maybe four of them bought within the last couple of months. They're all happy saying, "The market's busy and I bought," but really they shouldn't be buying in a market that's, you know, or be happy with the fact that they bought in a busy market. I think a lot of buyers are, you know, for the bulk of them, without their realtors, are slightly uneducated. So, you know, them buying into a busy market almost gives these buyers a bit of confidence is what I have personally seen just out there in the field. Where now no one's buying, the herd mentality is nowhere even close to being prevalent. So we'll just maybe continue to wait a little bit or wait to tour till after spring break or... The urgency's not there. I will say, you know, we've talked about, you know, how it's dramatic buyer's market. I have seen more activity just, you know, in certain segments-

Ryan Berlin: Mm-hmm

Brandan Price: ... this year than the end of last year. I know we haven't brought a whole lot of positivity to sort of this podcast, but I have seen a number of multiple offers for, let's say, those families that might be going from a one bedroom or currently renting to then buying, call it family orientated product at reasonable pricing. So let's call it product that they could, you know, do some touch ups, whether it's do it yourself or a little lipstick or, you know, cosmetic reno. Call it sub one five, you're seeing some activity because buyers are seeing value. But I think, you know, the herd mentality, whether it's Bitcoin, Labubu, stock, real estate, buyers, people, you know, they sort of like to join that herd. So right now there's none of that. So they just continue to push that can down the line and wait, and maybe when you see that herd, it could be a larger herd than we've seen before. I don't know.

Ryan Wyse: I think the herd mentality is still there. It's just the herd thinks it's a good time to wait.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, I mean, the, the reason a, a first mover advantage exists is because there's a first mover fear, right? And so-

Ryan Wyse: Mm-hmm

Ryan Berlin: ... that's what we're seeing right now.

Brandan Price: Yeah.

Ryan Berlin: But the reality is that housing is, as you said, this might be the best time to buy in 10 years, and housing is objectively, like [laughs] whether you're, you're renting, but particularly, uh, if you're looking at ownership, it is more affordable than it's been in, uh, four years. Great.

Uh, we always love to answer your real estate questions. You can email them to us at [email protected] or leave a voicemail at speakpipe.com/therenniepodcast and we'll try to respond to it on the next episode. Before we wrap up, final piece of adv- I know we didn't get, we didn't, we didn't... We've, we've run long. We have not talked about land assemblies. We didn't talk about pre-sale, resale pricing, so we'll have to have you on again. But as we-

Brandan Price: Absolutely. Would love to

Ryan Berlin: ... as we ride out here, final piece of advice and then, um, and, and how can people get in touch with you?

Brandan Price: Yeah. So I would say, you know, for buyers, if you have been looking and you're sorta waiting for prices to come down, they've sorta come down a decent amount. You know, get your pre-approvals, chat with, you know, whether it's me or w- whoever your real estate advisor is, and, and see where you can find your fit or your family's fit in this market. I think it's, uh, you know, something worth considering given sort of the state of the market and, and the overall seller's mindset. Again, Brandon Price, uh, l- leader of Team Brandon Price. Uh, you can reach out to me at [email protected] or, uh, on my cellphone, 604-765-9555. And yeah, happy to have a chat or a coffee, uh, talk about what, uh, in depth I'm seeing out there.

Ryan Berlin: I love a man who's not afraid to share his phone number on a podcast. [laughs]

Brandan Price: [laughs]

Ryan Wyse: [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: Uh, thanks for joining us again, Brandon.

Brandan Price: Is that unconventional?

Ryan Berlin: Hey, man, it's, it's-

Ryan Wyse: You're not the only one to do it. [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: Everyone rolls a different way.

Brandan Price: Yeah.

Ryan Wyse: Yeah. [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: It's your phone. [laughs]

Brandan Price: [laughs]

Ryan Wyse: [laughs]

Ryan Berlin: Thanks for joining us.

Brandan Price: Yeah. Thank you, guys.

Ryan Berlin: Yeah, it's been a pleasure.

Brandan Price: Appreciate it. Thank you. [outro music]

Thank you for joining us on the Rennie Podcast. If you'd like to learn more or to subscribe to intelligence updates, go to rennie.com/intelligence.